It is understood that the price of aluminum hit a new high since July 2008, rising above US $3000 per ton for the first time in 13 years. Data show that the price of aluminum has risen from 11000 yuan/ton last year, and has so far increased by more than 117 percent, leading the price of other basic metals. In the first few months of this year, copper prices soared, breaking through $10000/ton in April for the first time in 10 years. However, it has subsequently cooled down, but judging from the recent price performance, copper prices have rebounded strongly. On October 18, the spot copper price on the Yangtze River was 76370 yuan/ton, up 2210 yuan/ton. Guangdong spot copper price: 76380 yuan/ton, up 1380 yuan/ton.
Industry insiders pointed out that the refrigerant may become this year's big outlet. The reporter learned that at present, the prices of refrigerant products including the second-generation refrigerants R22, R142b and the third-generation refrigerants R134a, R32, and R410a have all increased significantly. On the one hand, it is the supply of raw materials. The starting point of the refrigerant is fluorite. In recent years, the amount of fluorite mined in my country has even been unable to meet the demand for self-use, and the import volume of fluorite has increased at a corresponding high speed. As of last year, my country's fluorite self-sufficiency rate fell below 90% to 87.76%. Hydrofluoric acid is generated by the reaction of fluorite and sulfuric acid, which is an important raw material for refrigerants, and the operating rate of hydrofluoric acid in China will further drop to 55% in 2020, resulting in a tightening of the upstream of the fluorine chemical industry. On the other hand, the state's investigation of "double control" of energy consumption has been relatively strict and gradually upgraded. A number of provinces, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangxi and Yunnan, began to limit electricity and stop production. Due to the impact of limited electricity and production, the operation of the refrigerant industry has declined significantly, and the overall operating rate of the industry is less than 40%. At the same time, power restriction and production restriction also limited the capacity of upstream raw material enterprises, resulting in a relatively tight supply of raw materials, further aggravating the downturn in the operating rate of the refrigerant industry and intensifying the tight supply situation in the industry.
The shortage of raw materials is an important reason for the rise in refrigerant prices, but the root cause is the substantial improvement in demand. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the actual demand will eventually return to normal, while China and the world's refrigeration demand will also maintain a long-term upward trend, due to quota constraints supply constraints, the second generation of refrigerants rise is very sufficient, the third generation of refrigerants or will be in short supply for a long time.

When is the price increase? When will the inflection point occur?
Goldman Sachs in the new report also pointed out that copper prices due to insufficient inventory will be the next tipping point. "With copper inventories rapidly tightening, global copper inventories are likely to reach historic * low levels by the end of the year, and a serious supply-demand imbalance is expected in the copper market, raising the year-end copper price forecast to $10500/tonne." At present, copper inventories in the spot market are declining rapidly, falling by nearly 40% in the past four months, and global copper inventories may reach an all-time low by the end of the year.
Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities, said when interpreting the September PPI data on October 14 that commodity prices are expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PPI will remain above 10% year-on-year. According to Gao Ruidong's analysis, on the domestic side, despite the pressure on export demand, there are more constraints on the supply side, coupled with the promotion of dual control of energy consumption, resulting in a continued tight supply and demand environment for industrial products, driving up prices in high-energy-consuming industries. On the international front, countries have recently accelerated the pace of unsealing, extreme weather has restricted the power of green energy, and the arrival of the peak of energy consumption in winter has jointly promoted the increase in demand for traditional energy such as oil and natural gas, while the supply side is facing problems such as insufficient production capacity and low inventory. Insufficient elasticity will make it difficult to effectively alleviate energy problems in the short term.
So, when will the inflection point of raw material prices occur? Many refrigeration people still maintain an optimistic attitude. Merlot Chen Dong pointed out: "First of all, our country is very strong, providing us with a relatively stable production environment and supply environment. Secondly, with the normalization of foreign epidemics, the supply of various raw materials will also tend to be normal. It is expected that the overall raw material prices will return to normal in 22 years without other special events."

The first way to deal with price increases: price increases
According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, factory prices of industrial producers nationwide rose 9.0 percent year-on-year and 0.5 percent month-on-month in July 2021, with industrial prices of raw materials rising 17.9 percent and processing industry prices rising 7.5 percent. From January to July, the average ex-factory price of industrial producers rose by 5.7 percent over the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose by 7.9 percent. Upstream inflation, downstream deflation, China's manufacturing industry is facing the serious challenge of dangerous shoals before and thorns after.
After entering September, a number of refrigeration appliance enterprises announced product price increases. Dongguan Gree Electric Appliances announced that starting from September 28, the level 3 energy efficiency of household air-conditioning Qingliang Bay unit cabinet will be increased by 500 yuan/set, and the level 2 energy efficiency of Qingliang Bay unit cabinet will be increased by 700 yuan/set. Wuhu Midea wrote to the terminal retail system that the cost increase of winter products exceeded the affordable limit. Starting from September 1, it will adjust the supply price and promotion price of the overall winter products in sale. Hisense Refrigerator sent a letter, starting from October 1, the price of Hisense Rongsheng cold washing products will be raised by 5%-10%.
In the field of refrigeration and refrigeration, the reporter learned that many enterprises of two devices and compressors have issued price adjustment notices. There are also some unit companies that said: "The customer has to make an inquiry in time before placing an order. Those who have made an inquiry and paid a deposit will be executed at the price at the time. Those who have not paid the deposit will be subject to the price of the day."
In fact, in just one year, refrigeration companies have raised prices more than once. Merlot Chen Dong said frankly: "On the one hand, enterprises are facing huge cost pressure, and even face the dilemma of having money to buy goods. On the other hand, if the enterprise raises prices significantly to customers, it may not be able to guarantee on-time delivery, which will inevitably lead to a significant reduction in customer satisfaction and the loss of customer trust. So today's environment for all physical manufacturing industry has a huge survival pressure and profit pressure."
For refrigeration companies, on the one hand, they need to establish advantages in advance and prepare for risks; on the other hand, even if the market changes suddenly, they cannot be caught. Sticking to quality and deepening innovation will never be out of date for companies.